New airplane deliveries in the region will be driven largely by the need to retire older, less fuel-efficient single-aisle airplanes and regional jets, as airlines replace them with new-generation, more fuel-efficient models.
"Demand for airplanes also will be fueled by an increase in the number of people flying to, from and within Russia and CIS,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, who released Boeing's 2011 CIS market outlook today in Moscow. “We expect passenger traffic for the region to grow at a rate of 4.3 percent on average."
Tinseth said the growing tendency of both business and personal travelers to traverse
Taking retirements of old airplanes into account, the CIS fleet will grow from 1,140 airplanes today to about 1,400 airplanes by 2030.
Boeing forecasts that single-aisle airplanes will grow from 55 percent of the total CIS fleet today to 66 percent of the fleet by 2030. Airlines are increasingly focusing on airplane age as fuel-thirsty, older airplanes weigh increasingly on earnings. Increased attention to aviation's impact on global climate change also will be a factor in selecting airplanes that produce lower carbon emissions.
Twin-aisle fleets will evolve in the region as airlines continue to expand international point-to-point services to a wider range of airport pairs and frequencies. Small- and mid-sized twin-aisle airplanes will represent 18 percent of the CIS fleet by 2030. Within the CIS market, Boeing sees a demand for 200 new, efficient twin-aisle airplanes such as the 787 Dreamliner.
Large airplanes (747-size and larger) will not see significant demand in CIS, accounting for only four percent of all deliveries over the next 20 years. Approximately 40 large airplanes are projected for CIS through 2030.
Boeing also forecasts demand for 160 regional jets in the CIS. These aircraft will be used to accommodate traffic growth to smaller secondary markets within the region and to replace older aircraft.
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Five Decades of Boeing's CMO
Since the beginning of the jet age, Boeing has produced a long-term market outlook. We first shared this outlook publicly 47 years ago. It is the longest running complete worldwide jet forecast and is regarded as the most respected and comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. A forecast for the CIS was first published in 2007. .
Boeing Russia and CIS
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More information on the CIS market forecast can be found at: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/cis.html