Boeing forecasts that the Italian market will acquire between 400 and 500 new commercial airplanes, including freighters, worth $40 billion in the next 20 years, according to the Current Market Outlook, the 20-year market commercial airplane forecast that Boeing presented in Rome today.
The new aircraft will meet the need for both fleet expansion and airplane replacement.
"The Italian fleet will increase by two-thirds over the next 20 years. This is the continuation of a long-term trend we've seen from the early 1990s, following liberalisation," said Drew Magill, director, Marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Since 1990 we have seen the number of long-haul flights from Italian airports more than triple while the average airplane size has fallen 30 percent. This trend to more non-stop destinations and higher frequencies will continue. While the Italian fleet as a whole will increase by two-thirds, the Italian fleet of long-range twin-aisle jets will grow the fastest, increasing from 15 percent to 20 percent of the total," Magill said.
Italian airlines will acquire new aircraft in three categories during this period:
- 30-40 regional jets
- 300-400 single-aisle jets
- 50-70 twin-aisle jets (200-400 seats)
Air traffic will continue to grow as the trend toward market liberalisation extends across Asia. At the same time, higher frequencies and more direct routes will be in strong demand.
The worldwide market for new airplanes will amount to $2.8 trillion between now and 2026, for a total of 28,600 new passenger and cargo planes. The world fleet will add up to 36,400 jetliners by then, including new deliveries and aircraft already in service. These estimates are based on an annual growth in the world economy of 3.1 percent, 5 percent passenger traffic growth and 6.1 percent cargo growth.
Worldwide deliveries by market segment are forecast as follows:
- 3,700 regional jets (less than 90 seats)
- 17,650 single-aisles (90-240 seats)
- 6,290 medium size twin-aisles (200-400 seats)
- 960 aircraft beyond 400 seats (747-8 or larger)
In geographical terms the Asia-Pacific region will be the biggest market, counting for 36 percent of the $2.8 trillion total, followed by 26 percent for North America and 25 percent for Europe, Russia and the CIS.
The European market (excluding Russia and CSI) will require around 6,670 new commercial aircraft for a total value of $660 billion. These estimates are based on an average annual increase in GNP of 2.1 percent, a 4.2 percent increase in passenger traffic and 5.2 percent cargo annual growth.
Roughly 70 percent of the new airplanes will be single-aisle (4,630 units), and 20 percent will be medium-sized twin-aisles (1,360); 7 percent are expected to be regional jets (450 units) and four percent, or 230 aircraft to be airplanes the size of the 747-8 or larger.